- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.38 – 32.39 this morning, supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.50
- SET Index: 1,483.56 (-0.38%), 12 May 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,400.96 (-0.16%), 12 May 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.162 (+0.11 bps), 12 May 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.46 (+4.00 bps), 12 May 2026
- Fragile ceasefire and Iran conditions keep geopolitical risks elevated
- US core inflation accelerates, clouding Fed easing outlook
- BoJ Summary of Opinions points to further rate hikes
- British politics is back to instability
- Dollar rallies on hot CPI, rising oil prices
Fragile ceasefire and Iran conditions keep geopolitical risks elevated
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated as markets monitored the risk of renewed Middle East conflict after Donald Trump described the ceasefire as “very weak”. Reports suggested Iran targeted Kuwait, while Saudi Arabia was also said to have struck Iran earlier in the conflict. Iran meanwhile reiterated it would not resume negotiations without conditions including sanctions relief, compensation and recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz. In a separate report, there were suggestions that crude exports from Iran’s Kharg Island have been halted.
US core inflation accelerates, clouding Fed easing outlook
US headline CPI rose 0.6% M/M in April, matching expectations and slowing from March’s 0.9% gain, although the annual rate accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%, above forecasts. Energy prices climbed 3.8% on the month, accounting for more than 40% of the increase in headline inflation. Underlying inflation was firmer, with core CPI rising 0.4% M/M, above expectations and up from 0.2% previously, while the Y/Y rate accelerated to 2.8%. Core services and supercore inflation also strengthened, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain sticky beyond energy-related effects.
BoJ Summary of Opinions points to further rate hikes
Bank of Japan’s April Summary of Opinions showed policymakers leaning towards further rate hikes, with some warning the BoJ may need to accelerate tightening if upside inflation risks increase. Others noted deeply negative real rates and suggested prolonged Middle East tensions could bring forward moves toward neutral policy settings.
British politics is back to instability
Reports indicate that 79 Labour MPs have now publicly urged Keir Starmer to resign, close to the 81 required to formally trigger a leadership challenge. Starmer faces a pivotal cabinet meeting today, while senior ministers including Shabana Mahmood, Yvette Cooper and John Healey are reportedly encouraging him behind closed doors to consider a handover. Pressure mounted further after four ministerial aides quit, citing doubts over his ability to restore confidence. The escalating political uncertainty is weighing on the pound and gilts, with the risk of a sharper sell-off if Labour moves further to the left.
Dollar rallies on hot CPI, rising oil prices
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.162, +0.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.17, +3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.46, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.37, moving in a range of 32.38 – 32.39 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.50 today. The dollar strengthened broadly as higher oil prices and hotter-than-expected US CPI lifted Treasury yields and reinforced inflation concerns. Core CPI accelerated to 0.4% M/M, while sticky services inflation kept the Fed cautious, with Goolsbee again flagging persistent price pressures. The euro slipped despite hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel, while the British pound underperformed amid growing political uncertainty surrounding Keir Starmer. The Japanese yen also weakened as higher US yields pushed USD/JPY above 157.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
